Fall School 2021
18th Fall School of the Hungarian Actuarial Society
Hungarian Actuarial Society’s 18th Fall School – 12-13 November 2021, in Prémium Hotel Panoráma**** in Siófok and online.
For in-person attendance with accomodation: 30. October 2021. 24:00
For online only attendance and in-person attendance w/o accomodation: 7th November 2021. 24:00
Presentations will be shared with members and candidates.
Friday -12. November 2021
Climate/Meteorology related risks
Predictability and future changes of severe weather events
Earth system is composed of atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, land surface and biosphere, including non-linear interactions between them. Numerical weather prediction concentrates on short-range description of the atmospheric features, while climate modelling aims at describing future evolution of Earth System. There are various uncertainties in the modelling process which have to be quantified for the forecast users. In the presentation, the
scientific background of weather and climate modelling is introduced with special focus on the uncertainties in prediction of severe weather events.
Predictability and future changes of severe weather events – Part II
Modelling of athmospheric perils
Modelling of atmospheric perils is becoming ever more detailed with increasing amount of data and information available. While the outputs of natural catastrophe models may remain similar from the user point of view, the amount and detail of the analyses on the model development side is growing. In this session various challenges and solutions related to development of a flood/windstorm/hail model will be presented.
Saturday - 13. November 2021
Mohammad Azmatullah Sharif, FSA
AI Applications in Insurance Pricing
In order to improve results based on traditional pricing methods, machine learning algorithms can be used at each step of pricing in insurance industry from data preparation to actuarial modeling, to tariff simulation and behavioral optimization.
Boosting, explainable AI and feature selection in finance
Gradient boosting produces a prediction model in the form of an ensemble of weak prediction models, typically decision trees. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) is a game theoretic approach to explain the output of any machine learning model. It connects optimal credit allocation with local explanations using the classic Shapley values from game theory and their related extensions. SHAP can be combined very well with gradient boosted trees. In my presentation, I will give examples of how Python packages for boosting and model explanation can be applied for behavior modeling in finance.
The last 10 minutes of presentations are reserved for questions and comments.
The programme is still subject to change.
Members of the HAS (and member candidates): HUF 10 000 per conference attendant.
Other participants: HUF 20 000 per conference attendant.
Participation is possible both offline and online, registration is required in both cases.
For online participation only payment of the Registration fee is required. Please tick the checkbox “I would like to attend the conference” on the registration form.
Please include the accommodation requests of any accompanying people on the registration form, who are not attending the conference.
- Double room for single use: HUF 18 400 per person (one night).
- Double room: HUF 12 250 per person (one night).
- Dinner: HUF 6 860 per person.
- Lunch: HUF 6 860 per person.
Apart from the above services (accommodation, lunch and dinner with a soft-drink or water per meal) the cost of any further consumption, services should be paid individually by the participants to the hotel.
For Members of the HAS (including member candidates) we provide a discount: the total expenses are capped at HUF 30 570 for double room accommodation, and at HUF 35 800 for double room for single use accomodation. Members of the HAS after retirement paying for their own expenses and attending the conference receive a 50% discount.
8600 Siófok, Beszédes J. sétány 80.
Details of online access will be shared directly with participants.
Please fill out the below questionnaire to register.
Registrations are limited based on the capacity of the venue, and registration can be closed early if the capacity is exhausted. We recommend registering early.
Cancellation and modification of the registration:
After 30 October 2021 any cancellation or modification is subject to a fee of 100% of the hotel cost and registration fee.
In case of late modification or cancellation of your registration after the registration deadline, please email the Event Organizing Committee (EOC) of the HAS (email@example.com).
As the pandemic protection measures can affect the personal participation of the conference, we recommend paying the fees only after the event, regardless of whether you plan to participate in person, or online. Consistently, invoices will only be sent out after the event.
You can pay fee of the event via bank transfer using the following details:
Bank: K&H Bank Zrt.
Account Holder: Magyar Aktuárius Társaság
Account No: 10405004-50515150-57571007
IBAN: HU61 1040 5004 5051 5150 5757 1007
Note: O/2021 and „Name” (Full name of the Participants) or „Company name”
If you need an invoice, please fill in the relevant fields on the registration website. You will get an electronic invoice after the event to the email address provided during registration. You can register more colleagues from your company within one registration if one invoice is enough. So please register together if you need a common invoice and register alone if you need an individual invoice within a company. If the company is part of a VAT group, then please include both the company’s tax number and the VAT-Group ID.
Coronavirus protocols are in line with Hungarian regulations. Please check back later for further information.
Under Section 6/C, Paragraph (3) of Government Decree 484/2020 (10 November) on the second phase of pandemic defence measures during the state of emergency, our events may only be attended by people immune to the coronavirus.
Hungarian Actuarial Society as the organiser has an obligation to verify the immunity of all participants, which they may prove either by an immunity certificate as per Section 2/A of the decree, or the equivalent application-based certificate as per Government Decree 60/2021 (12 February). Both require personal ID as well. Please bring the above documents to the event, as otherwise Hungarian Actuarial Society as organiser has the right and obligation to deny and prevent entry to the event even with a valid registration, as per Section 6/C Paragraph (5) of the decree.
We recommend participants to wear masks during the conference and to bring hand sanitizers according to their own needs.
If you have any food allergies or preferences (gluten free, vegan, etc), please add this information to the “other comments” section of the Registration form.
The Hungarian Actuarial Society may produce image and video recordings of the event, both on the location of the event, and the online event. If you would like to revoke your permission to recordings, please contact the Organisers on the address: firstname.lastname@example.org
Details of the online participation will be sent to the email addresses provided during registration.
We require participants of the conference to wear the badges provided.
Dress Code: Casual
Check-in at the hotel is from 14:00, and check-out time is 10:00.
Parking: Internal parking places are available for HUF 1500 per car per night. Parking outside of the hotel is free of charge (both public parking spaces and green areas)
Sports facilities: There will be no sports events organised this year
Extension of your stay: In case you would like to extend your stay at the hotel, then please contact the hotel directly (email@example.com) with reference to the Fall School. Please cc the Organisers (firstname.lastname@example.org) to such emails.